Data through Jun 15, 2026 · updated weekly
When New Magic Cards Are Cheapest
A new card opens high on release-day hype, then drifts down as the set gets opened and supply piles up. The typical rare bottoms out about 7 months after release, around 25% below where it launched, then partly climbs back. That dip is the window to buy.
Based on how past sets behaved. A guide to timing, not a guarantee. A card that breaks out in a format can climb early; one nobody plays may keep sliding.
The cheapest window, by rarity
How far each rarity falls from its launch price, and how many months after release it tends to hit bottom. We track mythics and rares, the cards you actually buy as singles. (Commons and uncommons are mostly bulk, and their prices sit too low to read cleanly.)
The shape of a new card's price
Median price as a share of release-week price (100 = launch day), averaged across 9 past sets. Every line dips and recovers. The ringed point on each line marks that rarity's cheapest week, the bottom of the dip.
See the actual curve for a specific set
This is the average across every set. Set Price Trends show how one particular set has held its value since release, rarity by rarity.
Set price trendsThe buyer's playbook
If you want a card the week its set drops, you pay the release premium. That is what the launch spike is. If you can wait, the same card is usually cheaper a few months in, once the set has been opened and the early hype fades. The catch is the cards that see heavy play recover fastest, so a true tournament staple may not sit at its floor for long. For a card you mostly want for a deck and are not in a rush on, the months-after-release dip is the sweet spot.
Watching a specific set? Check its price trend, or see what is moving right now. When you are ready, find a local store that carries Magic singles.
Questions
- When is the best time to buy a new Magic card?
- For the singles people actually buy (rares and mythics), the cheapest window is usually around 7 months after a set releases, when the typical rare sits about 25% below its launch price. Cards open high on release-day hype, drift down as supply piles up, bottom out, then partly recover. Buying near that bottom is how you avoid the launch premium.
- Do Magic cards go up or down after release?
- Both, in order. A new card almost always falls from its release-day price as the set is opened and supply grows. After a few months it reaches a low point, and from there the cards that see real play tend to climb back, sometimes past their launch price. Commons and uncommons bottom early and recover toward launch; rares and mythics stay down longer before recovering.
- How is this calculated?
- We track the daily market price of Magic singles and measure each card against its own release-week price (100%), then take the typical (median) card across 9 past sets. The curve is the average shape of how a new card's price moves over the months after launch. Pre-release preorder prices are excluded. Those are speculative asks, not sales.
- Where can I buy Magic singles near me?
- Local game stores sell singles over the counter, often cheaper than shipping. Browse stores that carry Magic on our directory to check stock and prices near you before you drive out.
The trends here are our own analysis, not raw card prices. Don’t reuse them without permission. See the terms.